Sitters, nannies and childcare centers are all necessary at some point for families. The cost of these services can gradually add up throughout the year if using them regularly. So what help does the government give to assist families in offsetting these costs? Well, the good news is that there are a few options that can make a big difference...

 Childcare IRS Tax Credits
Families can claim up to $3000 per annum for one child, and up to $6000 per annum for two children or more for a maximum IRS Tax Credit of $2100. This amount is reduced based on your income down to 20% of the expenses above. Hence you may only receive $600 or $1200 as an IRS Tax Credit respectively if your income is above $43,000. You must have earned income and be actively working or seeking work. Be sure to read IRS Publication 503 to follow the eligibility guidelines and file form 2441 with your annual tax return.


Childcare Tax Credit Example - How to Reduce your Childcare Costs
In 2015, a family with two children earns $80,000 per year. Both parents are working and need around 7 - 8 hours of childcare services per week, spending $6000 for the whole year.
Total Annual Childcare Costs = $6000
Total Annual Hours of Childcare = 400
Average Childcare Cost = $6000 / 400 = $15 per hour
IRS Tax Credit = $1200
Total Annual Childcare Costs After Tax Credit = $6000 - $1200 = $4800
Average Childcare Cost After Tax Credit = $4800 / 400 = $12 per Hour (20% Discount)

Flexible Spending Account (FSA) for Dependent Care
This is not the same Flexible Spending Account that is usually referred to in your health insurance. This FSA is set up by your employer and is a "dependent care FSA". You can set aside up to $5000 pre-tax per annum for upcoming childcare expenses. However, the FSA is a "use it or lose it" plan, so if you you don't spend it all by December 31st, it does not carry over to the next year. The FSA works on a reimbursement basis, so you will need to keep all childcare receipts and submit them accordingly. 

 FSA Dependent Care Example - How to Reduce your Childcare Costs
In 2015, a family with two children earns $80,000 per year. Both parents are working and need around 7 - 8 hours of childcare services per week, spending $6000 for the whole year.
Total Annual Childcare Costs = $6000
Total Annual Hours of Childcare = 400
Average Childcare Cost = $6000 / 400 = $15 per hour
Estimated Tax Savings = $1582.50
Total Annual Childcare Costs After Tax Savings = $6000 - $1582.50 = $4,417.50
Average Childcare Cost After Tax Credit = $4800 / 400 = $11 per Hour (27% Discount)
In the above two examples, we see that the tax benefit amount that you get by using the FSA is slightly better than the IRS Childcare Tax Credit. However, try using this calculator based on your individual circumstances to see what works best by running several scenarios of your situation, or contact a financial advisory firm like Hedges Wealth Management.

 Many families who use in-home childcare like babysitters and nannies in Charleston SC, Charlotte NC, Miami FL or Atlanta GA either pay cash or check. This is usually done under the table and no employee taxes or income taxes are paid. Hence, if you are planning on using the FSA or Childcare IRS Tax Credit to offset expenses, then you need to be honest about it. Use a sitter / nanny on demand application like NannyPod based in Charleston, South Carolina. Nannypod charges a $20 annual membership fee plus hourly package fees. In return, they handle all babysitter taxes, keep electronic records of your childcare hours, send you receipts and a reminder in January to file the correct IRS Form 2441 with your tax return. The app allows you to see availability of local background checked NannyPod sitters and nannies, check out reviews, and request them instantly one-time or on a recurring basis. The tax benefit and reduction in cost per hour of a babysitter, nanny or any childcare center is well worth it.



Whatever situation you and your family are in with regards to childcare, from a financial planning and advisory perspective, it's important to utilize the tools that the government and IRS allow in the best manner to stay ahead financially. 


The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Hedges Wealth Management.
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  1. Despite the pick-up in volatility at the end of January, risk assets continued their upward ascent throughout the month. Expectations surrounding the implementation of the newly passed tax reform bill and the weakening US dollar served as positive catalysts for the month. Macroeconomic data was mixed; fourth quarter real GDP growth came in slightly below expectations but manufacturing activity accelerated and the US jobs report was positive. Although we have seen initial signs of rising inflation, levels remain subdued as low unemployment has yet to translate into meaningful wage growth. We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain on track with interest rate normalization and the positive, albeit choppy, market momentum we have seen to date indicates that markets can likely withstand an additional Fed rate hike in March.
    The S&P 500 Index was up 5.7% for the month with cyclicals outperforming defensive sectors. Consumer discretionary (+9.3%) led while tax cuts and a solid job market served as positive catalysts. Information technology (+7.6%) and financials (+6.5%) also posted strong returns for the month. Utilities (-3.1%) and REITs (-2.0%) were down as traditional bond proxy sectors experienced headwinds amidst rising interest rates. Growth outperformed value and large-cap outperformed both mid-cap and small-cap equities.
    Developed international equities (+5.0%) performed in line with domestic equities. Fundamentals within the Eurozone continued to improve and sentiment is high. The focus remains on European Central Bank policy and how the reduction of its quantitative easing purchases will impact markets. Emerging markets were up 8.3%. A weaker dollar and stronger demand for commodities served as tailwinds for both emerging Asia and Latin America regions.
    Feb. 2018 Market Outlook
    The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index was down -1.2% for the month. Interest rates surged with 10-year Treasury yields increasing 31 basis points, ending the month at 2.7%. Tightening monetary policy and improving US growth expectations will likely continue to put upward pressure on the long end of the yield curve. High yield was the only sector to post positive returns in January, as credit spreads continued to grind tighter. Like taxable bonds, municipals were negative for the month.
    We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate-term, although we acknowledge we are in the later innings of the bull market and the second half of the business cycle. While this cycle has been longer in duration compared to history, the recovery we have experienced has been muted, supported by the extended recovery period. While our macro outlook is biased in favor of the positives, the risks must not be ignored.
    We find a number of factors supportive of the economy and markets over the near-term.
    • Pro-growth policies of the Administration: The Trump administration has delivered a new tax plan and a more benign regulatory environment. We could see additional government spending on infrastructure in 2018.
    • Synchronized global economic growth: Growth in the US has started to accelerate, and growth in both developed international and emerging economies has meaningfully improved. The tax cuts could also help to boost GDP growth in 2018.
    • Improvement in earnings growth: Corporate earnings growth has improved globally and corporate tax reform should further benefit US-based companies.
    • Elevated business sentiment: Measures like CEO Confidence and NFIB Small Business Optimism are at elevated levels. This typically leads to additional project spending and hiring, which should boost growth. The corporate tax cut should also benefit business confidence and lead to increased capital spending.
    However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:
    • Fed tightening: The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, with at least three interest rate hikes priced in for 2018. We may see tightening from other global central banks as well.
    • Higher inflation: Current levels of inflation are muted but inflation expectations have ticked higher and the reflationary policies of the Administration could further boost levels. Should inflation move higher, the Fed may shift to a more aggressive tightening stance.
    • Geopolitical risks: Geopolitical risks including trade policies and global challenges could cause short-term market volatility.
    Despite the volatility experienced over the last week, the technical backdrop of the market remains favorable, credit conditions are supportive, and global economic growth is accelerating. So far President Trump’s policies are being seen as pro-growth, and business and consumer confidence are elevated. The onset of new policies under the Trump administration and actions of central banks may lead to higher volatility, but our view on risk asMarchsets remains positive over the intermediate-term. Higher volatility can lead to attractive pockets of opportunity we can take advantage of as active managers.
    Brinker Capital Barometer (as of 1/5/18)
    Brinker_Barometer_1-5-18


    Source: Brinker Capital. Leigh Lowman, CFA, Investment Manager. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. S&P 500: An index consisting of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry grouping, among other factors. The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of US equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large-cap universe. Companies included in the Index are selected by the S&P Index Committee, a team of analysts and economists at Standard & Poor’s. Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate: A market capitalization-weighted index, maintained by Bloomberg Barclays, and is often used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in United States.
    Views expressed are those of Brinker Capital, Inc. and are for informational/educational purposes.  Opinions and research referring to future actions or events, such as the future financial performance of certain asset classes, indexes or market segments, are based on the current expectations and projections about future events provided by various sources, including Brinker Capital’s Investment Management Group. Information contained within may be subject to change. Diversification does not assure a profit not guarantee against a loss.
    The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Hedges Wealth Management.
     
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  2. With 39 percent of Americans feeling ill-prepared for retirement, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s 2017 Retirement Confidence Survey, we are often challenged to come up with a solution to make saving easier.[1] Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions, and in the absence of unplanned windfalls, there are no shortcuts. There are, however, strategies that will help you overcome behavioral impediments by infusing discipline into your retirement savings plan. Here are six strategies to consider:
    1. Automate the process. The best way to make retirement savings a priority is to put it on autopilot, so each time you get paid you save for the future without giving it much conscious thought. If you have an employer-sponsored retirement plan, arrange for a percentage of your pay before taxes to go directly into your retirement account. Also, commit to increasing the percentage you allocate to your retirement account every time you get a raise. The impact of automated savings plans to net pay is often far less than anticipated, and after time it goes somewhat unnoticed. The impact on your nest egg, however, could be quite significant.
    2. Make it binding. Make your future self a promise to refrain from withdrawing any money from your account before retirement. The best way to protect your retirement account is to establish a separate emergency reserve fund. It is typically recommend setting aside six months’ worth of income to cover unexpected expenses like uncovered medical costs, home repairs, or other unplanned surprises. With an emergency fund, you have a resource to fund whatever immediate needs arise without tapping your retirement account or delaying your savings goals.
    3. Pay your future self what you paid your creditors. After you’ve cleared an outstanding debt, consider “continuing” those payments by making deposits into your retirement account. For example, if you pay off a car loan that previously cost you $500 a month, allocate that same amount to your retirement account.
    4. Establish a home for “found” money.  It’s not uncommon for someone to view inheritances, tax refunds, and company bonuses as “found money,” and splurge on items they would not otherwise buy. If you receive a windfall or even a little extra, consider allocating the amount into three portions: one for long-term savings goals, one for short-term savings goals, and one to reward yourself.
    5. Use reward points. Several credit card companies offer specialized cash back programs which convert rewards points into cash deposits into 529 college savings plans, brokerage accounts, or other retirement accounts (e.g., IRAs).
    6. Get an accountability partner. To increase the likelihood of meeting your retirement savings goals, ask someone to hold your feet to the fire. Your accountability partner should be objective, and unlike a spouse, have no vested interest in daily household financial decisions. Your accountability partner should track your progress, offer encouragement, and continually remind you of your long-term goal. If you are already working with a financial advisor, ask him or her to take an active role in keeping you motivated and engaged in meeting your retirement goals.
    Screen Shot 2017-11-08 at 2.44.59 PM.png

    As the late Jim Rohn once said, “We must all suffer from one of two pains: the pain of discipline or experience the pain of regret. The difference is discipline weighs ounces while regret weighs tons.” Failing to save enough for retirement comes in as the top financial regret of older Americans.[2] So, if saving for retirement poses a challenge to you today, give some thought to the challenges your future self will face if you don’t take these steps.
    For more than 10 years, Brinker Capital Retirement Plan Services has worked with advisors to offer plan sponsors the solutions to help participants reach their retirement goals. When plan sponsors appoint Brinker Capital as the ERISA 3(38) investment manager, this allows them to transfer fiduciary responsibility for the selection and management of their investments so they can focus on the best interests of their employees.  This fiduciary responsibility is something that Brinker Capital has acknowledged, in writing, since our founding in 1987.
    The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.
    [1] Retirement Confidence Survey 2017, Employee Benefit Research Institute
    [2] Bankrate Financial Security Index Survey, May 17, 2016

    Views expressed are those of Brinker Capital, Inc. and are for informational/educational purposes.  Opinions and research referring to future actions or events, such as the future financial performance of certain asset classes, indexes or market segments, are based on the current expectations and projections about future events provided by various sources, including Brinker Capital’s Investment Management Group. Information contained within may be subject to change. Diversification does not assure a profit not guarantee against a loss.
    The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Hedges Wealth Management.
     
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  3. In a widely anticipated move, the Fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points on March 15, 2017, the second interest rate hike in three months and there are talks of potentially two more raises this year. Positive economic data and a rise in business confidence served as a catalyst for the Fed to continue its interest rate normalization efforts with the possibility of as many as two additional rate increases later this year. However, recent rhetoric from the Fed reaffirmed their commitment to move at a cautious pace, supporting Brinker Capital’s view that the process of longer term rates will likely be prolonged and characterized in fits and starts, rather than linear, as the market adapts to the new normal.
    Blog1
    Source: FactSet, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. U.S. Data are as of February 28, 2017. Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the fed futures market as of the date of the December 2016 FOMC meeting. *Forecasts of 17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants are median estimates. **Last futures market expectation is for November 2019 due to data availability.
    Catalysts for higher interest rates
    Many positive factors are currently present in the economy that point to a move toward interest rate normalization:
    • Stable U.S. economic growth. Economic growth in the U.S. has been modest but steady. The new administration and an all-Republican government will likely further stimulate the economy through reflationary fiscal policies including tax cuts, infrastructure spending and a more benign regulatory environment.
    • Supportive credit environment. High yield credit spreads have meaningfully contracted and are back to the tight levels we saw in 2014. Commodity prices have also stabilized.
    • Inflation expectations. Historically, there has been a strong positive correlation between interest rates and inflation. Many of the anticipated policies of the Trump administration are inherently inflationary. Inflation expectations have increased accordingly and headline inflation has been moving towards the Fed’s 2% long-run objective. In addition, we believe we are in the second half of the business cycle, typically characterized by wage growth and increased capital expenditures, both of which eventually translate into higher prices.
    • Unemployment levels. The labor market has become stronger and is nearing full employment. Unemployment has dropped to a level last seen in 2007.
    Historical perspective
    From 1965 to present, the Fed has implemented policy tightening a total of 15 times and the impact on the bond market has not always translated into longer rates rising. For example, back in 2004 the Fed began raising rates in response to beginning concerns of a housing bubble and the bond market did well as the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell.
    More recently during the current market cycle, the Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in December 2015. The 10 year Treasury yield fell and the bond market generated a positive return while equities plummeted in the first quarter of 2016. A year later, the Fed increased rates by 25 basis points in December 2016. The impact on markets was minimal with both equities and fixed income generating strong positive returns in the two months that followed.
    Fixed income allocation
    Traditional fixed income has historically provided a hedge against equity market risk with substantially less drawdown than equities. Although a rising rate environment would suggest flat to negative returns for some areas of fixed income, the asset class still provides stability in portfolios when equities sell off. For example, fixed income provided an attractive safe haven during the market correction in the beginning of 2016.
    In an environment of rising rates, Brinker Capital believes an allocation to traditional fixed income is still merited as we expect the asset class to provide a good counter to equity volatility.
    Blog2
    Source: Fact Set, Brinker Capital, Inc. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
    Overall, much uncertainty remains on the timing and trajectory of interest rate changes. Brinker Capital remains committed to helping investors navigate through a rising rate environment through building diversified portfolios across multiple asset classes.
    Views expressed are those of Brinker Capital, Inc. and are for informational/educational purposes.  Opinions and research referring to future actions or events, such as the future financial performance of certain asset classes, indexes or market segments, are based on the current expectations and projections about future events provided by various sources, including Brinker Capital’s Investment Management Group. Information contained within may be subject to change. Diversification does not assure a profit not guarantee against a loss.
    The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Hedges Wealth Management.

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  4. Global events, such as the intensely divided presidential election that we just lived through, are certain to generate some periods of market volatility of varying lengths in addition to a significant amount of stress. However, we urge financial advisors and investors to retain a few dos and don’ts to help manage post-election anxiety:
    Don’t equate risk with volatility. Volatility does not equal risk. Risk is the likelihood that you will not have the money to live the life you want to live. Paper losses are not “risk” and neither are the gyrations of a volatile market. Long term investors have been rewarded by equity markets, but those rewards come at the price of bravery during periods of short-term uncertainty.
    Do know your history. Despite what political pundits and TV commentators would have you believe, this is not an unusually scary time to be alive. The economy continues to grow (slowly) and most quality of life statistics (crime, drug use, teen pregnancy) have been declining for years. Markets have always climbed a wall of worry, rewarding those who stay the course and punishing those who succumb to fear.
    Don’t give in to action bias. At most times and in most situations, increased effort leads to improved outcomes. Investing is that rare world where doing less actually gets you more.

    Do take responsibility. Most investors are likely to tell you that timing and returns are the biggest drivers of financial performance, but research tells another story. Research suggests that you are the best friend and the worst enemy of your own portfolio. Over the last 20 years, the market has returned roughly 8.25% per annum, but the average retail investor has kept just over 4% of those gains because of poor investment behavior.1 At times when market moves can feel haphazard, it helps to remember who is really in charge.
    Don’t focus on the minute to minute. If you are investing in the stock market you have to think long-term. As mentioned above, you can avoid action bias by not checking your portfolio status all day every day, especially during times of higher volatility. Limited looking leads to increased feelings of security and improved decision-making.
    Do work with a professional. Odds are that when you chose your financial advisor, you selected him or her because of their academic pedigree, years of experience or a sound investment philosophy. Ironically, what you may have overlooked is the largest value he or she adds—managing your behavior. Studies put the value added from working with an advisor at 2 to 3% per year. Compound that effect over a lifetime, and the power of financial advice quickly becomes evident.
    Source: (1) Dalbar, Inc. Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior. Boston: Dalbar, 2015.
    Views expressed are those of Brinker Capital, Inc. and are for informational/educational purposes.  Opinions and research referring to future actions or events, such as the future financial performance of certain asset classes, indexes or market segments, are based on the current expectations and projections about future events provided by various sources, including Brinker Capital’s Investment Management Group. Information contained within may be subject to change. Diversification does not assure a profit not guarantee against a loss.
    The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Hedges Wealth Management.

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    Labels: 2016 Election Financial Advice Investment Advice Investor Returns Markets portfolio Results

  5. Maximizing tax credits offered by the IRS and various states around the US is key to maximizing your financial position. There are many types of tax credits available for both individuals and businesses. One of the better ones is for angel investors in the State of SC who invest in a qualified business. Investors can attain up to 35% as a tax credit. This tax credit was created by Nikki Haley under the High Growth Small Business Creation Act, alternatively known as the Angel Investor Act on June 14, 2013.



    Let's look at the math and see why this one is so important. If you are an accredited investor in South Carolina who puts $100,000 into a qualified business like NannyPod for example, you could potentially get a 35% tax credit.

    If a company is offering a convertible note, with a minimum valuation of $2M and a maximum valuation of $5M, then the $100,000 that you put in could potentially convert to between 5% and 2% equity ownership. However, due to the 35% tax credit, you actually realize this ownership for an investment cost of $65,000.

    $100,000 x 35% = $35,000
    $100,000 - $35,000 = $65,000

    Hence, your investment of $100,000, really turns out to be an investment of $65,000.

    Now let's look at what happens when the company is sold, and you get a return on your investment. If the company you invested in does well, and has a successful exit strategy of say $50M in 5-6 years time, then your worst case scenario 2% ownership is now worth $1M. 



    If we calculate the return on $100K growing to $1M, then you made 1000%. However, if we calculate the return on $65K invested due to receiving the $35K tax credit, then you actually made 1538%, an additional 538% more.

    This clearly illustrates why maximizing tax credits can be of huge benefit, especially to angel investors in the State of SC. 


    The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Hedges Wealth Management.

    Click here for more Newsletters. Thank you.

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  6. There is no silver bullet when it comes to investing or wealth management in general… if there was, we would all be sitting on yachts and most likely not reading this article. However, there needs to be some clarity and calm on the very complex 'Brexit' subject for our US based clientele. 





    We experienced first hand the creation of Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), Britain's exit from the ERM, the intro of the Euro, and now the exit from the EU (aka "Brexit"). Many people travel, but those who live in places differ tremendously than those who spend two nights in a city and are up at dawn to find the next locale in a neighboring country or city. When you live somewhere, you remember far more. Having lived in the UK for over 20 years, in the USA for over 15 years, and multiple other countries like Australia, Argentina, Senegal, Italy, France and Spain, here is our first hand perspective in short… 

    • The Brexit referendum consisted various complex subjects (immigration, EU participation, grants, trade). Some voted with their emotions, some voted with their wallets...


    • Brexit now allows a potential UK Independence Day that will compete with July 4th (parody!)

    • Brexit will mean higher inflation, higher unemployment, slower growth, higher interest rates in the UK

    If you are still concerned, and require more extensive reading, please click the below link on the recent Goldman Sachs Economic Outlook. 




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  9. After an extremely volatile quarter, the broad equity market indexes ended just about where they started. Risk assets began the year under heavy pressure, with the S&P 500 Index declining more than -10% to a 22-month low on February 11. Concerns over the global growth outlook and the impact of further weakness in crude oil prices weighed on investors, and investor sentiment hit levels of extreme pessimism. Then we experienced a major reversal beginning on February 12, helped by a rebound in oil prices after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to freeze production, and more dovish comments by the Federal Reserve. Expectations regarding the pace of additional rate hikes by the Fed have been tempered from where they started the year.
    All U.S. equity sectors ended the quarter in positive territory except for healthcare and financials. Dividend paying stocks significantly outperformed, resulting in a strong quarter for both the telecom and utilities sectors, and value indexes overall. From a market capitalization perspective, mid-caps outperformed both large and small caps, helped by the strong performance of REITs, another yield-oriented asset class.
    Developed international equity markets lagged U.S. equity markets in the first quarter despite benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar. Japan and Europe were particularly weak despite additional easing moves by their central banks, while the commodity-sensitive countries, such as Canada and Australia were positive for the quarter. Emerging markets outperformed U.S. equity markets for the quarter despite declines in China and India. Brazil was the strongest performer, helped by a rebound in the currency, expectations for political change, and the bounce in commodity prices.
    ECBBonds outperformed stocks during the quarter, and did not even decline during the risk-on rally. Additional easing from the European Central Bank and a negative interest rate policy in Japan prevented U.S. bond yields from moving higher.
    All fixed income sectors were positive for the quarter, led by corporate credit, which benefited from meaningful spread tightening, and TIPS, which benefited from their longer duration. Municipal bonds delivered positive returns, but lagged taxable fixed income.
    We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate-term; however, we acknowledge that we are in the later innings of the bull market that began in 2009 and the second half of the business cycle. The worst equity market declines are typically associated with recessions, which are preceded by aggressive central bank tightening or accelerating inflation, factors which are not present today. While our macro outlook is biased in favor of the positives and a near-term end to the business cycle is not our base case, the risks must not be ignored.

    A number of factors we find supportive of the economy and markets over the near term.
    • Global monetary policy remains accommodative: Despite the Federal Reserve beginning to normalize monetary policy with a first rate hike in December, their approach is patient and data dependent. The Bank of Japan and the ECB have been more aggressive with easing measures in an attempt to support their economies, and China is likely going to require additional support.
    • Stable U.S. growth and tame inflation: U.S. economic growth has been modest but steady. Payroll employment growth has been solid and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.0%. Wage growth has been tepid at best despite the tightening labor market, and reported inflation measures and inflation expectations, while off the lows, remain below the Fed’s target.
    • U.S. fiscal policy more accommodative: With the new budget fiscal policy is poised to become modestly accommodative in 2016, helping offset more restrictive monetary policy.
    • Solid backdrop for U.S. consumer: The U.S. consumer should see benefits from lower energy prices and a stronger labor market.
    However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:
    • Risk of policy mistake: The potential for a policy mistake by the Fed or another major central bank is a concern, and central bank communication will be key. In the U.S. the subsequent path of rates is uncertain and may not be in line with market expectations, which could lead to increased volatility. Negative interest rates are already prevalent in other developed market economies.
    • Slower global growth: Economic growth outside the U.S. is decidedly weaker, and a significant slowdown in China is a concern.
    • Another downturn in commodity prices: Oil prices have rebounded off of the recent lows and lower energy prices on the whole benefit the consumer; however, another significant leg down in prices could become destabilizing.
    • Further weakness in credit markets: While high yield credit spreads have tightened from February’s wide levels, further weakness would signal concern regarding risk assets more broadly.
    The technical backdrop of the market has improved, as have credit conditions, while the macroeconomic environment remains favorable. Investor sentiment moved from extreme pessimism levels in early 2016 back into more neutral territory. Valuations are at or slightly above historical averages, but we need to see earnings growth reaccelerate. We expect a higher level of volatility as markets assess the impact of slower global growth and actions of policymakers; however, our view on risk assets tilts positive over the near term. Higher volatility has led to attractive pockets of opportunity we can take advantage of as active managers.
    Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

    The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Social Security Timing.

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    Labels: 2016 Economic Outlook bonds Equities Financial Advisor Charleston Miami Charlotte Atlanta Global Growth interest rates S&P 500 Stock Market Outlook USA
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