Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that purchase mortgages from lenders and package them into securities that are sold to investors. The two companies currently back about 60% of all U.S. mortgages, and their infrastructure has made the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage widely available to U.S. borrowers.1–2

Before the housing crisis, Freddie and Fannie were profitable but held little capital in reserve.3 Rising loan defaults led to major losses, and the federal government rescued the failing GSEs with a $187.5 billion bailout in 2008.4 All bailout funds have been repaid, but both firms operate under a government conservatorship that will last until Congress or their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), acts to end it.5


In recent weeks, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen have expressed concerns that tight credit is holding back home sales, and slowing markets could pose a potential threat to the U.S. economy.6
Congress has been debating the future of Fannie, Freddie, and government involvement in the housing market. Meanwhile, new FHFA Director Mel Watt has decided that the mortgage giants should focus on making more credit available to homebuyers instead of pulling back from the mortgage market.7
Policy Switch
In his first public speech, Director Watt announced a new set of guidelines intended to expand access to credit and support the housing sector.
  • Watt said the agency will not change the current loan limits for “conforming” mortgages that can be purchased by Fannie and Freddie ($417,000 in most places and up to $625,500 in high-cost areas). Previously, the FHFA was considering a plan to lower the maximum loan amounts, a move that could undercut ­recovering housing markets.8
  • The FHFA will relax the terms for when GSEs can demand that sellers repurchase a faulty loan. Some lenders have paid billions to buy back and settle suits over bad loans and may have adopted stricter lending standards in fear of potential “putbacks.” The expectation is that lenders will loosen underwriting standards and be willing to approve more mortgages.9
Reform Efforts Stall
Bipartisan legislation seeking to overhaul the nation’s mortgage finance system, reduce the federal government’s role in the housing market, and protect taxpayers from future bailouts recently cleared the Senate Banking Committee. The Johnson-Crapo bill would eliminate Fannie and Freddie, and private institutions would take over the securitization and insurance functions. Government reinsurance on the securities would kick in only after private capital is wiped out.10
The bill hasn’t won broad enough support to be taken up by the full Senate. Some lawmakers think that Fannie and Freddie should be restructured rather than dismantled. Opponents believe the plan gives lenders too much control over the credit market; some are worried about higher borrowing costs that could shut some buyers out of the market.11  
Housing Challenges Remain
The housing recovery is still fragile, and markets have shown signs of weakness in recent months.
March home sales were fairly soft, falling 0.2% year over year.12 On top of tight credit, rising mortgage rates, higher prices, and a harsh winter are thought to have stifled sales, though it appears that affluent buyers have fared better than entry-level buyers under these conditions.13
In fact, many younger households with stable incomes may have been sidelined by strict underwriting standards or because they were carrying student debt that affects their ability and willingness to take out a mortgage.14 
Some homeowners who would like to move may be waiting because they owe more than their homes are worth, or because selling wouldn’t free up enough equity for a down payment on another home. At the end of the first quarter of 2014, about 18.8% of U.S. households (9.7 million) with mortgages were underwater, and another 10 million had equity of 20% or less.15
The $10 trillion U.S. mortgage market is a complex and critical part of the nation’s economy, yet it’s still unclear whether reform efforts will bring about a different and/or stronger mortgage finance system for the future. Even so, short-term policy changes that seem minor in comparison could still affect many potential homebuyers and sellers in Charleston SC, Charlotte NC, Miami FL and Atlanta GA.16  
1, 4) Reuters, May 13, 2014
2–3, 5, 10–11, 16) The Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2014
6–8) The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2014
9) MarketWatch, May 14, 2014
12) National Association of Realtors, April 22, 2014
13) MarketWatch, April 9, 2014
14) MarketWatch, May 15, 2014
15) The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2014

The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Emerald Publications.

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Despite the pick-up in volatility at the end of January, risk assets continued their upward ascent throughout the month. Expectations surrounding the implementation of the newly passed tax reform bill and the weakening US dollar served as positive catalysts for the month. Macroeconomic data was mixed; fourth quarter real GDP growth came in slightly below expectations but manufacturing activity accelerated and the US jobs report was positive. Although we have seen initial signs of rising inflation, levels remain subdued as low unemployment has yet to translate into meaningful wage growth. We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain on track with interest rate normalization and the positive, albeit choppy, market momentum we have seen to date indicates that markets can likely withstand an additional Fed rate hike in March.
The S&P 500 Index was up 5.7% for the month with cyclicals outperforming defensive sectors. Consumer discretionary (+9.3%) led while tax cuts and a solid job market served as positive catalysts. Information technology (+7.6%) and financials (+6.5%) also posted strong returns for the month. Utilities (-3.1%) and REITs (-2.0%) were down as traditional bond proxy sectors experienced headwinds amidst rising interest rates. Growth outperformed value and large-cap outperformed both mid-cap and small-cap equities.
Developed international equities (+5.0%) performed in line with domestic equities. Fundamentals within the Eurozone continued to improve and sentiment is high. The focus remains on European Central Bank policy and how the reduction of its quantitative easing purchases will impact markets. Emerging markets were up 8.3%. A weaker dollar and stronger demand for commodities served as tailwinds for both emerging Asia and Latin America regions.
Feb. 2018 Market Outlook
The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index was down -1.2% for the month. Interest rates surged with 10-year Treasury yields increasing 31 basis points, ending the month at 2.7%. Tightening monetary policy and improving US growth expectations will likely continue to put upward pressure on the long end of the yield curve. High yield was the only sector to post positive returns in January, as credit spreads continued to grind tighter. Like taxable bonds, municipals were negative for the month.
We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate-term, although we acknowledge we are in the later innings of the bull market and the second half of the business cycle. While this cycle has been longer in duration compared to history, the recovery we have experienced has been muted, supported by the extended recovery period. While our macro outlook is biased in favor of the positives, the risks must not be ignored.
We find a number of factors supportive of the economy and markets over the near-term.
  • Pro-growth policies of the Administration: The Trump administration has delivered a new tax plan and a more benign regulatory environment. We could see additional government spending on infrastructure in 2018.
  • Synchronized global economic growth: Growth in the US has started to accelerate, and growth in both developed international and emerging economies has meaningfully improved. The tax cuts could also help to boost GDP growth in 2018.
  • Improvement in earnings growth: Corporate earnings growth has improved globally and corporate tax reform should further benefit US-based companies.
  • Elevated business sentiment: Measures like CEO Confidence and NFIB Small Business Optimism are at elevated levels. This typically leads to additional project spending and hiring, which should boost growth. The corporate tax cut should also benefit business confidence and lead to increased capital spending.
However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:
  • Fed tightening: The Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, with at least three interest rate hikes priced in for 2018. We may see tightening from other global central banks as well.
  • Higher inflation: Current levels of inflation are muted but inflation expectations have ticked higher and the reflationary policies of the Administration could further boost levels. Should inflation move higher, the Fed may shift to a more aggressive tightening stance.
  • Geopolitical risks: Geopolitical risks including trade policies and global challenges could cause short-term market volatility.
Despite the volatility experienced over the last week, the technical backdrop of the market remains favorable, credit conditions are supportive, and global economic growth is accelerating. So far President Trump’s policies are being seen as pro-growth, and business and consumer confidence are elevated. The onset of new policies under the Trump administration and actions of central banks may lead to higher volatility, but our view on risk asMarchsets remains positive over the intermediate-term. Higher volatility can lead to attractive pockets of opportunity we can take advantage of as active managers.
Brinker Capital Barometer (as of 1/5/18)
Brinker_Barometer_1-5-18


Source: Brinker Capital. Leigh Lowman, CFA, Investment Manager. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. S&P 500: An index consisting of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry grouping, among other factors. The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of US equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large-cap universe. Companies included in the Index are selected by the S&P Index Committee, a team of analysts and economists at Standard & Poor’s. Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate: A market capitalization-weighted index, maintained by Bloomberg Barclays, and is often used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in United States.
Views expressed are those of Brinker Capital, Inc. and are for informational/educational purposes.  Opinions and research referring to future actions or events, such as the future financial performance of certain asset classes, indexes or market segments, are based on the current expectations and projections about future events provided by various sources, including Brinker Capital’s Investment Management Group. Information contained within may be subject to change. Diversification does not assure a profit not guarantee against a loss.
The information in this article is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax or legal advice from an independent professional advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. This material was written and prepared by Hedges Wealth Management.
 
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